Coherent mortality forecasts by cause of death and disability level

Coherent mortality forecasts by cause of death and disability level

The objective of the project is to develop more accurate models to forecast mortality by cause of death and disability level, within a CoDA framework.

Duration of the Project: 2020 – 2022 (currently underway)

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The main investigator is Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, postdoctoral researcher at the Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics (CPop). There will also be collaboration with James W. Vaupel, Professor, and Jim Oeppen, Associate Professor at University of Southern Denmark (USD), and Søren Kjærgaard, Ph.D. student at CPop.

The objective of the project is to develop more accurate models to forecast mortality by cause of death and disability level, within a CoDA framework, providing by the end of the project:

  • a forecast by cause of death where one cause cannot come to dominate the forecast.
  • a forecast by cause which could have predicted actual mortality better than, or at least consistent with, an all-cause forecast, using historical forecasts. 
  • a forecast by disability level with a high degree of accuracy, assessed using historical forecasts. 

Forecasts by cause of death and disability level have been confronted with different methodological problems and the CoDA framework is an innovative approach which addresses some of these. Such methodology could be used to tackle the differences in mortality dynamics between sub-populations. For instance, national demographic data is frequently used to predict future mortality improvements due to the homogeneity and robustness of the data. However, inherent differences in the risk profile of an insured population from the general population create a basis risk. Mortality in an insured population differs from the total population both in terms of the distribution and the dynamic of the cause-specific mortality. Forecasting by cause of death could better capture the mortality dynamic specific to an insured population. Such forecasts also better represent changes in underwriting practices such as those currently experienced by the United States with the development of accelerated underwriting.