During the Scandinavian Actuarial Conference 2024, which took place in Copenhagen from August 14 to August 16, Heriot-Watt Research Fellow Ayse Arik gave a presentation on her research project “Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer”. Funded by the SCOR Foundation, this project was the subject of an article published in the Scandinavian Actuarial Journal in May 2024¹.  

The presentation is primarily based on this article, which focuses on women aged between 65 and 89. It also includes survival probability data from another study (which is currently under review²) on breast cancer survival (and pricing) between ages 30 and 89. The research involved in both cases uses a modelling framework developed to quantify the impact of initial health disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer mortality. This modelling framework is based on a semi-Markov approach in the absence of comprehensive data. It is versatile and can be used to compare different health systems in different countries. It can also be applicable to various cancer types sharing similar characteristics with breast cancer.

The main findings for women aged between 65 and 89 include:

• a 3-6% post-pandemic increase in the number of breast cancer deaths over 5 years, as compared to the pre-pandemic calibration, and  
• a 5-8% post-pandemic increase in deaths from other causes over 5 years.  

By comparing different Markov and semi-Markov modelling assumptions, the research demonstrates the significance in terms of breast cancer deaths of modelling the length of time spent with pre-metastatic breast cancer before developing metastatic breast cancer.

To read more about the project

¹ https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03461238.2024.2340964
² https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15975