SCOR Foundation Webinar | Climate Risk & Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Laboratory (CRUCIAL)
July 10, 2025

On July 10, 2025, the SCOR Foundation hosted a webinar linked to the Climate Risk & Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Laboratory (CRUCIAL) project.
The webinar was delivered by Lancaster University’s Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston, respectively Director and Operations Director of CRUCIAL.
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston described several structural challenges that affect climate forecasting and showed how using “prediction markets” can address these challenges. They introduced CRUCIAL, an initiative funded by the SCOR Foundation that uses prediction markets, with expert participants from academia and the private sector, to generate collective probabilistic forecasts of climate-related risks. They described CRUCIAL’s plan to become a new type of scientific institution for synthesizing climate forecasting modelling and expertise, and a mechanism for allocating climate research funding in a performance-driven way.
Biography

Kim Kaivanto is a Senior Lecturer in Economics and the Director of the MSc in Money, Banking and Finance at Lancaster University’s Management School (LUMS). Before joining LUMS he held fellowships at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics and Warwick Business School, from where he received his PhD. Kim's research interests are theoretical and descriptive models of decision making and behaviour under risk and uncertainty. He has applied his expertise to problems such as investor sentiment, security behaviour, civil aerospace R&D support schemes, aviation slot allocation and CO₂ emissions, venture capital, and the exploitation of social science research. He has also advised the banking sector on climate risk exposure.

Mark Roulston led the development of the AGORA prediction market platform while at investment firm Winton Group, where he worked for a decade, and at Hivemind, a technology company spun-out from Winton in 2018. He has a PhD in planetary science from Caltech for a thesis on the predictability of El Niño and he continued research on climate predictability at Oxford and Pennsylvania State Universities before working at the UK Met Office, prior to joining Winton. At Winton he led the integration of weather and climate information into quantitative trading strategies. Mark is now a Senior Research Fellow at Lancaster University where he is Director of Operations for the CRUCIAL initiative — funded by the SCOR Foundation — which uses prediction markets to forecast climate risks.