On March 19, 2025, the SCOR Foundation held a webinar titled: “Projecting future mortality rates under different RCP scenarios: A US case study” delivered by Han Li and Anastasios Panagiotelis.

Han Li is an Associate Professor at the Centre for Actuarial Studies within the University of Melbourne’s Department of Economics. She led the research project “Who, When, and Where? Assessing Mortality Risk of Climate Change,” which was funded by the SCOR Foundation from 2023-2024. This project provides insight into how climate change is likely to affect mortality experience across ages, seasons, and geographic locations. Anastasios Panagiotelis, a co-investigator on the project, is an Associate Professor in Business Analytics at the University of Sydney.

The webinar presents a Bayesian modeling approach that quantifies the impact of temperature on mortality in over more than 300 climate divisions in the US. The researchers show key findings based on the model estimates, demonstrating spatial dependence and variations in temperature-related mortality risk. They then conduct scenario-based analyses to estimate excess deaths due to temperature projections under different climate scenarios, providing further insights on regions that are most vulnerable to climate change.

Go to the project page