Accurate predictions of climate change are extremely important to private and public decision makers managing their exposure to climate-related risks. But forecasting climate requires knowledge from a wide range of disciplines—from meteorology and oceanography to economics and social sciences—and of methodologies, which may be theoretical or empirical, CGCM- or AI-based. Planning climate change adaptation means being able to navigate this complex context. Synthesizing all this disparate, interdisciplinary activity into actionable forecasts is a major challenge, which CRUCIAL intends to tackle with purpose-built prediction markets and expert participants.

Backed by the SCOR Foundation between 2025 and 2027, CRUCIAL is a collaboration between Lancaster University Management School and the Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute of the University of Exeter.

You can find more information about this project in the launch article published in November 2024 and on the dedicated project page.